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<script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{"tag":"share_1","bdSize":32,"bdCustomStyle":"http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/css/bgBdShare2021.css"}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </div> </div> <div id="bdShareBtn"></div> </div>  </div> <div class="contentArea"> <div class=TRS_Editor><div class="Custom_UnionStyle"> <p align="justify">　　中國社科院經濟研究所與社會科學文獻出版社10月31日聯合發佈《經濟藍皮書夏季號：中國經濟增長報告（2016-2017）》，對宏觀經濟形勢進行預判展望。報告稱，2017年中國經濟穩中求進，增速有望保持平穩增長，並超越外界之前的預期。該書執行主編、中國社科院經濟研究所研究員張平表示，若粗算加成研發支出的貢獻，預計全年增速達到6.8%；下半年通脹翹尾因素影響下降，全年通脹無憂。明年正值改革開放40週年，各方面改革有望繼續深化，經濟轉型的力度也將進一步加大。</p> <p align="justify">　　藍皮書認為，保持中高速與邁向中高端是經濟調整和經濟轉型的重要目標，從根本上來說，邁向中高端路徑的達成，是實現宏觀經濟穩定的基礎。當前，中國經濟仍處於經濟結構服務化引致的結構性減速階段，但隨著供給側結構性改革佈局的展開，以及穩增長、調結構、防風險等政策措施的逐步落實，中國經濟整體保持平穩增長，同時也呈現宏觀環境回暖、結構優化成效初顯、外部衝擊應對從容等向好的趨勢。</p> <p align="justify">　　張平指出，從理想的階段轉換連續性和線性發展理論的立場來看，中國要實現向中高端發展階段的邁進，必須滿足三個條件，即提高勞動生產率；提升全要素生產率及其貢獻率；保持潛在增長率的可持續性。“目前第二產業和第三產業的生產率提升較慢，與第二產業建築業比重較大、第三產業金融業比重較大有關。”</p> <p align="justify">　　他又表示，今年影響到宏觀經濟增長的最大變數，就是供給側結構性改革的力度加大，比如“環保督查”發力尤為重要。“這是我國敢於面對經濟增速適當切換而切實推進轉型升級的表現，是一個積極信號。不僅切中要害，促使我國產業組織迭代，提升集中度，且表明中國追求的是更有品質的增長。”</p> <p align="justify">　　報告認為，2017年上半年通貨膨脹率保持在1.5%以內，下半年通貨膨脹翹尾因素影響下降，全年通貨膨脹無憂。受翹尾因素影響，2017年第一季度PPI同比增長超過6%，環比增長逐漸收窄，2017年第二季度貨幣政策收緊，加上第四季度翹尾因素消失，PPI會持續回落，PPI在第一季度已經見頂。</p> <p align="justify">　　2016年9月，PPI同比上漲0.1%，這是自2012年3月以來PPI同比增長經歷連續54個月下降之後的首次正增長。2017年3月，PPI同比增長7.6%，環比也表現出增長態勢，上漲幅度為0.3%。</p> <p align="justify">　　報告稱，PPI同比增長由負轉正，是國內和國際多種因素共同作用的結果。一方面，由於在去產能、去庫存、穩增長等政策引導下，工業行業供需矛盾得到緩解，國內重點行業銷量、庫存呈現向好態勢。2016年全國煤炭產能退出6897萬噸，鋼鐵產能退出3170萬噸，分別完成年度任務的46%和63.4%，有力地支撐了工業品價格的上漲。另一方面，國內基建和房地產的剛性需求提高了需求預期，庫存增加導致全球大宗商品價格上漲，推動PPI回升。此外，人民幣貶值造成的大宗商品採購價格上漲也是推動PPI上升的重要因素。總之，PPI同比增長由負轉正，是中國經濟企穩向好的重要標誌。</p> </div></div> <div class="editor f14">[責任編輯：孫伊靜]</div> </div>  <div class="page-number"> <script type="text/javascript"> createPageHTML(1, 0, "t20171102_11861456", "htm"); </script> </div>  </div>   <div class="content-plus"> <div class="wrap"> <h3 class="zone-desc-content"><span class="format">相關新聞</span></h3> <ul class="list clearfix"> <li class="list-item single-line f14"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/econ.taiwan.cn/econ/201711/t20171102_11861452.htm" target="_blank" title="張崇和：“一帶一路”為“中國製造”走出去提供廣闊舞臺">張崇和：“一帶一路”為“中國製造”走出去提供廣闊舞臺</a></li> <li class="list-item single-line f14"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/econ.taiwan.cn/econ/201711/t20171102_11861447.htm" target="_blank" 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