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<script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{"tag":"share_1","bdSize":32,"bdCustomStyle":"http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/css/bgBdShare2021.css"}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </div> </div> <div id="bdShareBtn"></div> </div>  </div> <div class="contentArea"> <div class=TRS_Editor><p align="justify">　　《經濟參考報》記者綜合多方預測，受多重有利因素影響，2018年4月份工業生產、投資、消費等宏觀經濟數據有望全面回暖。專家表示，4-5月經濟數據正在經歷一輪環比上行，二季度可能會連續修正此前市場對經濟運作的悲觀預期。</p> <p align="justify">　　工業生產方面，中信證券首席經濟學家褚建芳表示，高頻數據顯示4月份工業生產已大幅回暖，4月六大集團耗煤量同比增長5.49%，比3月份大幅回升7.94個百分點。此外，仍處高位的PMI指數預示製造業整體繼續保持穩步增長的發展態勢。國內工業品供需結構的逐步改善和工業品價格的不斷上漲將帶來盈利的增長，進而提升工業企業的生產意願。預計4月工業增加值增速為6.5%，較3月份回升0.5個百分點。</p> <p align="justify">　　招商證券首席宏觀分析師謝亞軒也預計工業生產的數據將回升。他表示，供暖季結束後，環保限產壓力有所下降，預計工業生產增速將較3月小幅反彈，工業增加值同比增長6.3%。</p> <p align="justify">　　投資方面，交通銀行首席經濟學家連平預測，4月固定資產投資累計增長7.7%，比上月略有上升。他表示，一季度基建投資增速顯著下降，預計4月可能觸底回升，或高於13%水準。4月鋼材和水泥指數表明工程需求量較強，棚戶區改造和租賃房建設支撐投資，房地產開發投資預計保持在10%左右。</p> <p align="justify">　　褚建芳則表示，目前包括採礦業和製造業在內的工業投資已處於歷史極低的位置，隨著需求回暖和行業出清的持續，工業部分投資將迎來趨勢性回升。預計4月固定資產投資增速為7.8%，較3月份回升0.3個百分點。</p> <p align="justify">　　消費方面，連平表示，近期汽車銷售延續了回升勢頭，4月前兩周汽車零售同比增長14.2%，比3月加快了9.6個百分點，汽車批發同比增長25%。義烏中國小商品指數回升至100點以上，小商品批發零售需求回暖。綜合判斷，預計4月消費增速小幅上升至10.2%左右。</p> <p align="justify">　　謝亞軒表示，春節後市場對全年經濟的預期急轉直下。然而，資管新規落地、結構性降準顯示決策層不會以增長為代價強行推進去杠桿進程，4月製造業PMI保持平穩擴張已在提示需要修正對經濟過度悲觀預期。廣發證券首席宏觀分析師郭磊也表示，4-5月經濟數據正在經歷一輪環比上行。預計二季度名義GDP將趨於穩定，這一點將帶來增長敏感型資產和利率的預期修正。</p></div> <div class="editor f14">[責任編輯：李奕均]</div> </div>  <div class="page-number"> <script type="text/javascript"> createPageHTML(1, 0, "t20180510_11953576", "htm"); </script> </div>  </div>   <div class="content-plus"> <div class="wrap"> <h3 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