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<script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{"tag":"share_1","bdSize":32,"bdCustomStyle":"http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/css/bgBdShare2021.css"}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </div> </div> <div id="bdShareBtn"></div> </div>  </div> <div class="contentArea"> <div class=TRS_Editor><p align="justify">　　央廣網北京7月4日消息（記者柴華）據中國之聲《央廣新聞》報道，交銀集團今天（4日）發佈經濟展望報告認為，近年來中國經濟的韌性明顯增強，預計全年GDP增速將維持在6.7%左右，金融風險總體可控。</p> <p align="justify">　　交銀集團發佈《2018年下半年中國宏觀經濟金融展望報告》認為，上半年中國經濟運作平穩，儘管內外需求的同步放緩可能給下半年經濟增長帶來壓力，但近年來中國經濟的韌性明顯增強，工業生產恢復較好，新產業新業態對經濟的支撐作用逐步增強，預計2018年下半年中國經濟增速略有放緩，全年增速將維持在6.7%左右，經濟結構改善及品質提升帶來的機會值得關注。</p> <p align="justify">　　交通銀行首席經濟學家連平介紹，“總體來看，下半年的投資增速會企穩有所反彈，消費也會出現小幅度反彈。在其他各項增速總體繼續放緩的情況下，消費增速放緩的幅度要比其他慢，消費對中國經濟的影響越來越大，增加了中國經濟運作的韌性。”</p> <p align="justify">　　儘管當前信貸增速小幅下滑，社會融資結構調整體現出一定的信用違約和緊縮的壓力，但報告認為，下半年廣義貨幣供應量M2增速有望企穩甚至反彈。連平表示，在不增加杠桿的情況下，金融監管部門針對性政策保持流動性合理充裕，有助於控制金融風險。</p> <p align="justify">　　他認為，“下半年M1、M2、信貸增速、包括社會融資規模的增速都會有所改善，對實體經濟、投資而言，融資環境要比上半年好。比如現在出臺的一些政策是針對小微企業，因為它最困難，社會融資規模的減少對小微企業領域的融資會帶來一定的壓力。”</p> <p align="justify">　　另外，近期人民幣兌美元匯率波動幅度加大，引發市場對於跨境資金流動的擔憂。連平認為，人民幣貶值壓力總體可控。“從目前的情況來看，中國各個方面的宏觀均衡還是不錯的。內部均衡，包括經濟增長、充分就業、產出狀況、製造業工業這些領域中的情況總體還是比較平穩的；外部均衡來看，我們的國際收支基本上還是平衡的，資本流動目前來看還是以凈流入為主，經常項下的順差在收窄，但基本也能夠保持平衡。所以這種情況下，貨幣匯率不應該也不太可能出現持續大幅度的貶值。”</p></div> <div class="editor f14">[責任編輯：李航]</div> </div>  <div class="page-number"> <script type="text/javascript"> createPageHTML(1, 0, "t20180705_11971841", "htm"); </script> </div>  </div>   <div class="content-plus"> <div class="wrap"> <h3 class="zone-desc-content"><span class="format">相關新聞</span></h3> <ul class="list clearfix"> <li 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