緇忔祹鍩烘湰闈一喅瀹氫漢姘戝竵緙轟箯澶у箙璐孶��鍩虹𩬅_鎺ㄨ崘_涓㥣浗鍙版咕緗��/title> <meta name="keywords" content="浜烘皯甯��璐孶��,緇忔祹"> <meta name="description" content="緇熻𣾷鏁版嵁鏄劇ず錛屼粖騫翠互鏉ワ紝浜烘皯甯佸厬緹庡厓涓𢞴棿浠風瘡璁��船鍊間簡4.13%錛屼漢姘戝竵鍏戠編鍏冨嵆鏈熸眹鐜囩瘡璁��船鍊間簡4.40%錛岀艢宀鎬漢姘戝竵鍏戠編鍏冩眹鐜囩瘡璁��船鍊間簡4.55%銆傚悓鏈燂紝緹庡厓鎸囨暟鍒欎笂娑ㄤ簡2.5%銆��" /> <meta name="filetype" content="0"> <meta name="publishedtype" content="1"> <meta name="pagetype" content="1"> <meta name="catalogs" content="55237"> <meta name="contentid" content="12040488"> <meta name="publishdate" content="2018-07-26 16:01:16" /> <meta name="author" content="鏉庡𣋡鍧��> <meta name="source" content="緇忔祹鍙傝��鎶��> <meta content="all" name="robots" /> <meta name="googlebot" content="all" /> <meta name="baiduspider" content="all" /> <meta name="yahoobot" content="all" /> <link rel="stylesheet" rev="stylesheet" href="http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/css/global.css" type="text/css" media="all" /> <link rel="stylesheet" rev="stylesheet" href="http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/css/content.css" type="text/css" media="all" /> <link rel="stylesheet" rev="stylesheet" href="http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/css/mPlayer_min.css" type="text/css" media="all" /> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://103.249.53.35/images/trs_rollpagea_utf8_2020.js@OldUrl;@JS;http://econ.taiwan.cn/econ/201807/t20180726_12040488.htm_.js"></script> </head> <body>  <div class="header"> <div class="wrap clearfix">  <div class="funcs">  <div class="languages"> <ul class="list clearfix"> <li class="list-item alt"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/eng.taiwan.cn/" target="_blank">鑻��/a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/big5.taiwan.cn/" target="_blank">綣��/a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/" target="_blank">綆��/a></li> <li class="list-item mobile"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/big5.taiwan.cn/" target="_blank">綣��/a></li> </ul> </div>   <div class="sub-nav"> <h3 class="zone-desc">鍦版柟绔欑偣</h3> <ul class="list clearfix"> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/beijing/" target="_blank">浜��/a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/tianjin/" target="_blank">媧��/a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/hebei/" target="_blank">鍐��/a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/shanxi2/" target="_blank">鏅��/a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/neimenggu/" target="_blank">钂��/a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/liaoning/" target="_blank">杈��/a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/jilin/" target="_blank">鍚��/a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/heilongjiang/" target="_blank">榛��/a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/shanghai/" target="_blank">娌��/a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/www.jsstb.gov.cn/" target="_blank">鑻��/a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/zhejiang/" target="_blank">浙</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/anhui/" target="_blank">皖</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/www.fjtb.gov.cn/" target="_blank">閩</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/jiangxi/" target="_blank">贛</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/shandong/" target="_blank">魯</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/henan/" target="_blank">豫</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/hubei/" target="_blank">鄂</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/hunan/" target="_blank">湘</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/guangdong/" target="_blank">粵</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/guangxi/" target="_blank">桂</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/hainan/" target="_blank">瓊</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/chongqing/" target="_blank">渝</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/sichuan/" target="_blank">川</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/guizhou/" target="_blank">黔</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/yntb.taiwan.cn/" target="_blank">滇</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/xizang/" target="_blank">藏</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/shanxi/" target="_blank">陜</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/gansutb/" target="_blank">甘</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/qinghai/" target="_blank">青</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/ningxia/" target="_blank">寧</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/xinjiang/" target="_blank">新</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/local/guangdong_33203/" target="_blank">兵團</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/www.qd.taiwan.cn/" target="_blank">青島</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/cse.special.taiwan.cn/2018/liangan/" target="_blank">昆山</a></li> </ul> </div>     </div>   <div class="site-logo"> <style type="text/css"> .header .site-logo {position:relative;} .header .site-logo .icon_share {position:absolute;width:1.01rem;height:1.03rem;} .header .site-logo .icon_share img {width:100%;height:100%;} @media screen and (max-width:1024px){ .header .site-logo .icon_share {width:0;height:0;} } </style> <a class="icon_share" href="http://103.249.53.35/" target="_blank"><img src="http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/images/icon_share.png" alt="台灣網" /></a> <a class="logo" href="http://103.249.53.35/" target="_blank"><img src="http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/images/site_logo.png" alt="台灣網" /></a> <a class="logo-alt" href="http://103.249.53.35/" target="_blank"><img src="http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/images/site_logo_alt.png" alt="台灣網" /></a> </div>   <div class="searchPanel"> <form target="_blank" class="clearfix" id="baiduSearchContainer" action="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/zhannei.baidu.com/cse/site"> <input type="text" id="bdcsMain" class="input" name="q" placeholder="請輸入關鍵字搜索" /> <span class="input-group-btn "> <input type="submit" title="搜索" value="搜索" class="button" /> </span> <div> <input type="hidden" value="12472666198958497854" name="s" /><input type="hidden" value="1" name="entry" /> <input name="ie" type="hidden" value="gb2312" /> <input name="cc" type="hidden" value="taiwan.cn" /> </div> </form> </div>   <div class="qrcodes"> <ul class="list clearfix"> <li class="list-item"> <h2 class="list-item-title">台灣網移動版</h2> <img src="http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/images/qrcode1.png" alt="台灣網移動版" /> </li>  </ul> </div>  </div> </div> <div class="nav stTop"> <div class="wrap"> <style type="text/css"> @media screen and (min-width:1025px) and (max-width:1300px){ @supports(display:flex){ .nav .list {display:flex;align-items:center;} .nav .list-item {flex-shrink:0;} } @-ms-viewport { width:device-width; } } </style> <ul class="list clearfix"> <li class="list-item logo"><a class="logo-alt" href="http://103.249.53.35/" target="_blank"><img src="http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/images/site_logo_alt.png" alt="台灣網" /></a></li> <li class="list-item homepage"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/" target="_blank">首頁</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/xwzx/" target="_blank">時事</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/plzhx/" target="_blank">評論</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/lilunpindao/" target="_blank">理論</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/taiwan/" target="_blank">臺灣</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/xwzx/la/" target="_blank">兩岸</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/depts.taiwan.cn/" target="_blank">部委</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/31t/" target="_blank">31條</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/econ.taiwan.cn/" target="_blank">經貿</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/culture.taiwan.cn/" target="_blank">文化</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/zhinan/" target="_blank">指南</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/lib.taiwan.cn/" target="_blank">百科</a></li> <li class="list-item"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/www.acsme.org.cn/" target="_blank">醫藥</a></li> <li class="list-item mobile"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/special.taiwan.cn/2022zt/" target="_blank">專題</a></li> </ul> </div> </div>   <div class="main">  <div class="bread-crumbs"> <div class="wrap"> <a href="http://103.249.53.35/" target="_blank" title="台灣網" class="CurrChnlCls">台灣網</a> > <a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/econ.taiwan.cn/" target="_blank" title="經貿" class="CurrChnlCls">經貿</a> </div> </div>   <div class="content wrap"> <h1 class="title">經濟基本面決定人民幣缺乏大幅貶值基礎</h1> <div class="funcs clearfix single-line"> <div class="info"> <div class="date format single-line">2018-07-26 15:58:00</div> <div class="source format single-line">來源：經濟參考報</div> <div class="resizer format single-line">字號</div> </div>  <div class="share"> <div id="bdShare"> <div>  <div class="bdsharebuttonbox bdshare-button-style0-32" data-tag="share_1" data-bd-bind="1482825957937"> <a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a> <a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a> <a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="sqq" title="分享到QQ好友"></a> <a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空間"></a> </div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{"tag":"share_1","bdSize":32,"bdCustomStyle":"http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/css/bgBdShare2021.css"}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </div> </div> <div id="bdShareBtn"></div> </div>  </div> <div class="contentArea"> <div class=TRS_Editor><p align="justify">　　時隔13個月，人民幣兌美元中間價再度跌破6.80關口。7月25日，中國外匯交易中心的數據顯示，人民幣對美元中間價報6.8040，較前一交易日貶值149個基點，至2017年6月28日以來最低。但更多反映市場預期的即期匯率並未明顯受到中間價大幅走低的影響，當日報6.7784，較上日官方收盤價漲316點。</p> <p align="justify">　　統計數據顯示，今年以來，人民幣兌美元中間價累計貶值了4.13%，人民幣兌美元即期匯率累計貶值了4.40%，離岸人民幣兌美元匯率累計貶值了4.55%。同期，美元指數則上漲了2.5%。</p> <p align="justify">　　美元指數持續走強是本輪人民幣匯率走弱的主因已無疑問，市場對於貶值原因討論減弱，更多轉向預測人民幣未來走勢。多機構認為，基於美元繼續上行空間有限，人民幣大幅貶值的可能性較低。</p> <p align="justify">　　中信證券固收首席分析師明明表示，若美元繼續上衝，疊加中美利差或進一步收窄的影響，人民幣壓力仍然存在，但中期來看，美元或已進入築頂階段，且中國經濟基本面韌性較好為匯率提供了有力支撐，人民幣缺乏進一步持續大幅貶值的基礎，有貶有升、雙向浮動格局將延續。</p> <p align="justify">　　瑞銀中國首席經濟學家汪濤同樣認為，如果美元兌歐元或其他貨幣幣值比較穩定，人民幣應該沒有很大的貶值空間。而且，央行還可以通過加入逆週期因子等因素維持人民幣匯率相對穩定。</p> <p align="justify">　　中金公司在最新的研報中預計，短期內央行可以通過與市場的溝通、調節中間價等方式穩定匯率預期；中長期看，只有穩經濟、穩預期，才能有效穩住人民幣匯率。決定人民幣匯率和資本流動最根本的因素還是對中國投資回報率的預期。同時，近期人民幣匯率與國內資本市場的聯動也較為明顯。</p> <p align="justify">　　“當前時點下，穩定投資者對中國增長、企業盈利及資產品質的預期才是中長期穩定人民幣匯率預期最有效的政策。所以，更快、更有力、更協調的政策調整有利於穩定匯率預期。”該報告稱。（向家瑩）</p></div> <div class="editor f14">[責任編輯：李奕均]</div> </div>  <div class="page-number"> <script type="text/javascript"> createPageHTML(1, 0, "t20180726_12040488", "htm"); </script> </div>  </div>   <div class="content-plus"> <div class="wrap"> <h3 class="zone-desc-content"><span class="format">相關新聞</span></h3> <ul class="list clearfix"> <li class="list-item single-line f14"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/econ.taiwan.cn/econ/201807/t20180726_12040418.htm" target="_blank" title="嚴格把“房住不炒”落到實處——當前房地產市場發展述評之一">嚴格把“房住不炒”落到實處——當前房地產市場發展述評之一</a></li> <li class="list-item single-line f14"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/econ.taiwan.cn/econ/201807/t20180726_12040411.htm" target="_blank" title="不限流量套餐混戰上演">不限流量套餐混戰上演</a></li> <li class="list-item single-line f14"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/econ.taiwan.cn/econ/201807/t20180726_12040366.htm" target="_blank" title="兩岸多家機構共推青少年科技文化交流項目">兩岸多家機構共推青少年科技文化交流項目</a></li> <li class="list-item single-line f14"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/econ.taiwan.cn/econ/201807/t20180726_12040356.htm" target="_blank" title="南海網：“海峽兩岸記者特區行”聯合採訪團抵達海南開展採訪報道">南海網：“海峽兩岸記者特區行”聯合採訪團抵達海南開展採訪報道</a></li> <li class="list-item single-line f14"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/econ.taiwan.cn/econ/201807/t20180726_12040044.htm" target="_blank" title="中國新聞網：深圳無人機創業者重視兩岸行業間交流塑造優勢互補狀態">中國新聞網：深圳無人機創業者重視兩岸行業間交流塑造優勢互補狀態</a></li> <li class="list-item single-line f14"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/www.zhongguotongcuhui.org.cn/xgxw/202004/t20200417_12266516.html" target="_blank" title="臺灣人民幣存款餘額小幅上漲">臺灣人民幣存款餘額小幅上漲</a></li> </ul> </div> </div>  </div>   <script type="text/javascript" src="http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/js/globalLib_min.js@OldUrl;@JS;http://econ.taiwan.cn/econ/201807/t20180726_12040488.htm_.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/js/globalLib_extend_min.js@OldUrl;@JS;http://econ.taiwan.cn/econ/201807/t20180726_12040488.htm_.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/js/mPlayer_min.js@OldUrl;@JS;http://econ.taiwan.cn/econ/201807/t20180726_12040488.htm_.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/js/mPlayer_ini.js@OldUrl;@JS;http://econ.taiwan.cn/econ/201807/t20180726_12040488.htm_.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/js/contentFunc.js@OldUrl;@JS;http://econ.taiwan.cn/econ/201807/t20180726_12040488.htm_.js"></script>   <div class="footer"> <style type="text/css"> .footer p:nth-of-type(n+2) { margin-top: 0.23rem; } .footer p:nth-of-type(n+3) { margin-left: 0.82rem; } </style> <div class="wrap clearfix"> <div class="left clearfix"> <img class="gshIcon" src="http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/images/gshicon.png" /> <p class="left clearfix"> <a class="format" href="http://103.249.53.35/ZS/202404/P020240423382907137415.jpg" target="_blank">網際網路新聞資訊服務許可證10120170009</a> <a class="format" href="http://103.249.53.35/ZS/202404/P020240701486714333417.jpg" target="_blank">資訊網路傳播視聽節目許可證0107219</a> <a class="format" href="https://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/beian.miit.gov.cn/" target="_blank">京ICP備13026587號-3</a> </p> <p class="left clearfix"> <a class="format" href="http://103.249.53.35/ZS/202404/P020240423384439008729.jpg" target="_blank">增值電信業務經營許可京ICP證130248號</a> <a class="format" href="http://103.249.53.35/ZS/202404/P020240423383990831616.jpg" target="_blank">廣播電視節目製作經營許可證28329</a> <span class="format">京公網安備110102003391</span> </p> <p class="left clearfix"> <a class="format2" href="http://103.249.53.35/gywm/200905/t20090505_886770.htm" target="_blank">關於我們</a> <a class="format2" href="http://103.249.53.35/zzsq/200708/t20070803_438962.htm" target="_blank">轉載申請</a> <a class="format2" href="http://103.249.53.35/2021/sywhq_62090/2021gonggao/" target="_blank">公告欄</a> <a class="format2" href="http://103.249.53.35/lx/200709/t20070905_449642.htm" target="_blank">聯繫我們</a> <a class="format2" href="http://103.249.53.35/zzsq/201811/t20181121_12114577.htm" target="_blank">版權聲明</a> <a class="format2" href="http://103.249.53.35/lx/201801/t20180119_11909120.htm" target="_blank">違法和不良資訊舉報電話：86-10-83520320</a> </p> </div> <div class="left"> <a class="jbtel" href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/www.12377.cn/" target="_blank">違法和不良資訊舉報電話</a> </div> <div class="bottom" style="clear:both;float:left;width:100%;margin-top:0.75rem;font-family:simsun;font-size:0.2rem;line-height:1em;color:#fff;text-align:center;">北京海峽文化交流有限公司</div> </div> </div>   <div class="footer-mobile"> <style type="text/css"> .footer-mobile .line2 .gshIcon {float:none;} .footer-mobile .line2 .format {transform:translate(0,-100%);} .footer-mobile .line2 .format.alt {margin-right:1em;} .footer-mobile .line2 .format:nth-child(2) {margin-top:0;margin-right:0;} @media screen and (max-width: 480px){ .footer-mobile .line2 {padding-left:0;} .footer-mobile .line2 .gshIcon {left:50%;transform:translate(-180px,80%);} .footer-mobile .line2 .format:nth-child(2) {margin-top:0.08rem;} .footer-mobile .line2 .format {transform:none;} } @media screen and (min-width:399px) and (max-width:480px){ .footer-mobile .line2 .format:last-child {margin-left:0;} } @media screen and (max-width:398px){ .footer-mobile .line2 {left:0;} } @media screen and (max-width:400px){ .footer-mobile .line2 .gshIcon {transform:translate(-170px,90%);} } @media screen and (max-width:360px){ .footer-mobile .line2 .gshIcon {transform:translate(-155px,100%);} } </style> <div class="wrap clearfix"> <p class="line1"> <a class="format" href="http://103.249.53.35/gywm/200905/t20090505_886770.htm" target="_self">關於我們</a> <a class="format" href="http://103.249.53.35/lx/200709/t20070905_449642.htm" target="_self">聯繫我們</a> <a class="format" href="http://103.249.53.35/zzsq/201811/t20181121_12114577.htm" target="_self">版權聲明</a> <a class="backToPC" href="http://103.249.53.35/?" target="_self"><img src="http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/images/backToPC.jpg" alt="PC端" /></a> </p> <p class="line2 clearfix"> <img class="gshIcon" src="http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/images/gshicon.png" /> <a class="format" href="http://103.249.53.35/ZS/202404/P020240423382907137415.jpg" target="_blank">網際網路新聞資訊服務許可證10120170009</a> <a class="format" href="http://103.249.53.35/ZS/202404/P020240701486714333417.jpg" target="_blank">資訊網路傳播視聽節目許可證0107219</a> <a class="format" href="http://103.249.53.35/ZS/202404/P020240423384439008729.jpg" target="_blank">增值電信業務經營許可京ICP證130248號</a> <a class="format" href="http://103.249.53.35/ZS/202404/P020240423383990831616.jpg" target="_blank">廣播電視節目製作經營許可證28329</a> <a class="format alt" href="https://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/beian.miit.gov.cn/" target="_blank">京ICP備13026587號-3</a> <span class="format">京公網安備110102003391</span> <span class="format">北京海峽文化交流有限公司</span> </p> </div> </div>  <div style="display:none">  <script type="text/javascript"> var _bdhmProtocol = (("https:" == document.location.protocol) ? " https://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/" : " http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/"); document.write(unescape("%3Cscript src='" + _bdhmProtocol + "hm.baidu.com/h.js%3F8ca9d4832677566b69c3e115b744cdbc' type='text/javascript'%3E%3C/script%3E")); </script>  </div> <script src="http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/js/tj-min.js@OldUrl;@JS;http://econ.taiwan.cn/econ/201807/t20180726_12040488.htm_.js"></script>  <!--footer-mobile