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<script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{"tag":"share_1","bdSize":32,"bdCustomStyle":"http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/css/bgBdShare2021.css"}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </div> </div> <div id="bdShareBtn"></div> </div>  </div> <div class="contentArea"> <div class=TRS_Editor><p align="justify">　　“六連跌”後，人民幣對美元匯率中間價落入6.9區間。9日，中國官方公佈人民幣對美元匯率中間價較前一交易日下調62個基點，報6.9019，創下2017年5月11日以來最低。此前一天，在岸、離岸人民幣對美元匯率在盤中更是一度跌破6.93。</p> <p align="justify">　　中國金融期貨交易所研究院首席經濟學家趙慶明說：“從現在到年底，人民幣匯率難以走強。”在他看來，影響匯率的關鍵變數在於美元指數的強弱變化和貿易摩擦的演變。</p> <p align="justify">　　西班牙對外銀行研究部亞洲首席經濟學家夏樂在接受中新社記者採訪時預測，至今年年底，人民幣走勢會是相對窄幅的區間波動，但不會破7，中國經濟基本面狀況和貿易摩擦情況是影響匯率變動的主因。</p> <p align="justify">　　中國銀行國際金融研究所研究員王有鑫表示，四季度人民幣將在窄幅區間波動，而隨著美元指數回落，國內經濟基本面企穩，跨境資本流動形勢好轉，人民幣“補跌”需求釋放，人民幣匯率將逐漸回歸穩定。預計四季度人民幣對美元匯率將企穩至6.8上下。</p> <p align="justify">　　王有鑫說，本輪人民幣貶值與上一輪有三個不同點，一是跨境資本並未出現大規模外流，這也是央行本輪對待貶值相對從容的重要原因和底氣所在。</p> <p align="justify">　　其次是央行的穩定措施更加有效。2017年以來，央行逐漸完善調控手段，在不損失外匯儲備的情況下，有效實現了匯率穩定，高效和可置信的匯率調控政策將確保匯率不會出現大幅波動。</p> <p align="justify">　　三是市場對中國經濟信心更強。上一輪貶值階段發生時，中國經濟剛進入新常態，而經過兩年的結構調整和金融去杠桿，中國經濟依然保持中高速增長，GDP增速連續12個季度處於6.7%至6.9%區間。</p> <p align="justify">　　夏樂則提到，2016年人民幣貶值的大背景是美元強勢，美元指數最高時一度衝破103，儘管此次人民幣貶值時美元也在走強，但相比2016年時明顯要弱很多。(夏賓)</p></div> <div class="editor f14">[責任編輯：李奕均]</div> </div>  <div class="page-number"> <script type="text/javascript"> createPageHTML(1, 0, "t20181010_12099104", "htm"); </script> </div>  </div>   <div class="content-plus"> <div class="wrap"> <h3 class="zone-desc-content"><span class="format">相關新聞</span></h3> <ul class="list clearfix"> <li class="list-item single-line f14"><a 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