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<script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{"tag":"share_1","bdSize":32,"bdCustomStyle":"http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/css/bgBdShare2021.css"}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </div> </div> <div id="bdShareBtn"></div> </div>  </div> <div class="contentArea"> <div class=TRS_Editor><p align="justify">　　“房地產行業的全流通時代已經到來，新房、二手房、租賃三個市場的聯動越來越強，它們之間不再孤立分割，而是互生互聯。”在12月27日舉辦的貝殼思享會上，貝殼找房首席經濟學家、貝殼研究院院長楊現領表示，2018年是房地產市場深刻調整的一年，面對行業變局，以往的市場分析思路逐漸失效，新的市場機制正在顯現。</p> <p align="justify">　　2018年以來，房地產市場經歷了深刻調整。一方面，市場的變化根植于房地產方向的調整，在“房住不炒”、“租購並舉”的核心發展理念下，中國房地產供求格局發生了可喜的變化。另一方面，市場的深刻調整對房地產企業的影響也持續顯現，“土地流拍潮”、“房企更名潮”、“市場促銷潮”等接連湧來，房地產企業紛紛謀篇佈局加快調整舵頭。</p> <p align="justify">　　據貝殼研究院《2018年全國房地產市場年度報告》顯示，在政策高壓下，2018年房地產市場仍在高位，但基本結束增長勢頭，全國新房、二手房交易量與去年相比基本持平。貝殼研究院數據顯示，2018年全國商品住宅銷售面積14.6億平方米，與去年持平；而全國二手房市場則保持2017年以來的低溫狀態，預計全年成交420萬套，略低於2017年的421萬套。</p> <p align="justify">　　楊現領對市場下行的邏輯總結道：“高房價抑制了潛在購房需求的進入，也使得曾經過熱的換房鏈條冷卻下來，致使房價全線回落，市場自身的負反饋作用已經顯現。”他分析指出，2019年政策調控可能出現幾個變化，一是調控主體由中央轉向地方，更加有助於精準調控，科學調控；二是調控方式由調控交易轉向調控供給結構，可能會減少對交易環節的行政管制；三是政府職能回歸到住房保障，比如加快推進集體土地入市、鼓勵買房出租、盤活存量土地資源、為住房保障提供更多的財政支援等。</p> <p align="justify">　　此外，上述報告還指出，2019年房地產市場將出現的幾個關鍵趨勢：一是“二手觸底”：隨著市場的回溫、限售政策的鬆綁，賣一買一的換房需求會更容易釋放，2019年二手房市場下行的態勢有望得到轉變。再加上政策放鬆的影響，2019年二手房市場將結束繼續下行的態勢；二是“一線底火”：作為房地產底火的一線城市2019年市場有望小幅回升，首次置業需求將加快進入市場，帶動換房改善鏈條活躍；三是“二線壓倉”，2018年年末二線城市新房及二手房的成交均已顯現改善態勢，2019年二線房地產市場將成為支援全國房地產市場增長的主力；第四，“新房放量”：2019年隨著大量新房尤其是價格適中、位置尚可的限價房集中入市，會分流二手房市場的需求。</p> <p align="justify">　　貝殼研究院認為，當前中國房地產市場已經進入了“全流通時代”，相應地，其分析框架也應當引入全流通的概念。所謂全流通是指，新房市場、二手房市場、租賃市場之間不再是孤立分割的關係，而是互生共連的交互關係。三個市場之間交互的方式、時機與動能決定了房地產市場運作的“總體效果”。</p></div> <div class="editor f14">[責任編輯：李奕均]</div> </div>  <div 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