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<script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{"tag":"share_1","bdSize":32,"bdCustomStyle":"http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/css/bgBdShare2021.css"}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </div> </div> <div id="bdShareBtn"></div> </div>  </div> <div class="contentArea"> <div class=TRS_Editor><p align="center">　　<img style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-top-width: 0px" alt="" oldsrc="W020190213483942108906.jpg" src="./W020190213483942108906.jpg" /></p> <p>　　<font face="楷體,楷體_GB2312">對於民眾來說，房價何時落底才能出手購屋，恐怕才是最多人關切的事情。(圖片來源：臺灣“中時電子報”)</font></p> <p>　　台灣網2月13日訊據臺灣“中時電子報”報道，臺灣專欄作家賴淑惠近日在媒體發文表示，臺灣房市已經出現3大死亡交叉，2019年可能會成為臺灣房市的“賠售元年”。</p> <p>　　據報道，賴淑惠在臺灣好房網發文稱，去年上半年，臺北市、新北市、桃園和新竹地區推案量超過1萬戶，但單季的銷售量只有12%至14%，也就是說，有高達8千戶賣出去，這種瘋狂“種房”的建商只會陷入“養蚊子”的危機，只要“釋出量”與“房價”死亡交叉，爆量的物件就會網內互打，墜入房市暴跌的死亡陷阱。</p> <p>　　賴淑惠解釋說，第一個死亡交叉就是建商瘋狂“種房”至2020年，這些對象大量釋出後，將對房地產市場造成嚴重衝擊，就算預售賣掉5成，但還有一半的余屋，加上2020年適逢臺灣地區領導人大選，屆時量多價跌的“黃金交叉點”一旦重疊，房價恐怕從此一瀉千里。</p> <p>　　另外一種死亡交叉，就是“寬限期”， 2019年應該會先有一批垂死掙扎的對象，八大官股行庫出手護盤，祭出寬限期展延方案，這些“違約宅”可能在今年上半年有3成到期，屆時也非爆不可。</p> <p>　　最後一種死亡交叉，就是“人口紅利”走入歷史，2026年空屋潮將襲來，先前連續的兩個交叉都只是起點，當老年人口數與房價交叉，勞動人口從最高1737萬人為起點下滑，2026年直接面對老年化社會衝擊，消費主力減少，房價也就撐不下去，無俚頭推案的背後，建商面臨的斷頭危機，也就是民眾購屋的甜蜜點。（台灣網王怡然）</p></div> <div class="editor f14">[責任編輯：王怡然]</div> </div>  <div class="page-number"> <script type="text/javascript"> createPageHTML(1, 0, "t20190213_12139084", "htm"); </script> </div>  </div>   <div class="content-plus"> <div class="wrap"> <h3 class="zone-desc-content"><span class="format">相關新聞</span></h3> <ul class="list clearfix"> <li class="list-item single-line f14"><a 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