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<p>　　今年國際市場糧食價格漲幅較大，多國陸續宣佈實施小麥出口限制，進一步推動國際小麥價格上漲。相比于國際市場，我國糧食價格漲幅平穩。鐘鈺認為，我國糧食價格漲幅之所以比國際市場溫和，是因為我國口糧自給率總體保持在95%以上。雖然需要進口部分口糧，但並非供需存在缺口，而是用於品種調劑。</p> <p>　　我國高度重視糧食生產。近日，中央財政下達資金200億元，對實際種糧農民發放一次性補貼。2月份以來，農業農村部派出工作組，分赴冬小麥主產省份，深入田間地頭查苗情、查墑情、查病蟲情，指導各地及早動手開展春季田間管理。總體看，我國穀物基本自給、口糧安全有保障。</p> <p>　　農業農村部油料市場分析預警團隊分析師李淞淋表示，我國食用植物油供應有保障，價格預計穩步回落。</p> <p>　　據農業農村部油料市場分析預警團隊監測：自3月3日開始，國內一級豆油、葵花籽油出廠價格止漲回落；自3月10日開始，各類植物油產品價格明顯下跌。</p> <p>　　國內油菜籽將在5月下旬上市。據監測，去年秋冬播油菜的種植面積比2019年增加500萬畝左右，目前生長情況良好，產量預計較上年增加。從中長期看，國內食用植物油供給有保障。</p> <p>　　<strong>肉蛋奶供應充足</strong></p> <p>　　“全國生豬供應充足，價格已連續16周下跌。”中國農業科學院北京畜牧獸醫研究所研究員朱增勇說。</p> <p>　　農業農村部對全國500個縣集貿市場及採集點監測數據顯示，今年3月份第4周，全國每公斤豬肉均價22.38元，環比下跌1.2%，同比下跌49.2%。</p> <p>　　日前，中央和地方全面啟動豬肉收儲。3月22日，農業農村部召開部門協調會議，要求各地強化生豬全產業鏈資訊監測和預警，積極引導金融機構加大信貸政策支援，穩定養殖用地和環保等長效性支援政策，精準實施生豬產能調控和凍豬肉收儲調節，持續抓好非洲豬瘟常態化防控，促進生豬生產平穩健康發展，幫助養殖場戶渡過難關。</p> <p>　　在中央和多地採取有力措施下，豬肉價格跌幅可能趨緩，有望在低位窄幅震蕩調整，繼續下跌空間不大。</p> <p>　　此外，雞蛋市場供應充足。中國農業科學院農業經濟與發展研究所副研究員朱寧表示，雞蛋作為我國市場化程度最高的農產品，已能夠基本自給。</p> <p>　　由於前期全國產蛋雞存欄量處於歷史同期偏高水準，之後行業逐步調減產能。從補欄情況看，全國在產蛋雞存欄將平穩增加，雞蛋市場供應充足。</p> <p>　　“我國奶源充足，可滿足市場需求，不會出現供應問題。”農業農村部牛奶市場分析預警團隊分析師祝文琪說。去年，我國進口乳製品總量為395萬噸，比上年增加62萬噸；國內牛奶產量3683萬噸，比上年增長7.1%，均創歷史新高。生鮮乳收購價格下降，一方面符合上半年價格走低的規律，另一方面在生產成本不斷攀升的情況下，價格下降也體現了乳品庫存較為充足。</p> <p>　　<strong>蔬菜價格趨於回落</strong></p> <p>　　“我國蔬菜供應充足，價格正轉入季節性回落。”農業農村部蔬菜市場分析預警團隊首席分析師張晶說。</p> <p>　　隨著氣溫回升，一般每年3月份菜價開始進入季節性回落期。而今年受油料、農資價格上漲和不利天氣影響，蔬菜價格較往年同期跌幅明顯收窄。</p> <p>　　據張晶預測，後期我國蔬菜價格將繼續下行。從供給看，3月份全國蔬菜批發市場蔬菜上市量同比增加4.2%。從天氣看，3月中下旬影響我國冷空氣勢力整體不強，中東部地區降水增多，全國大部氣溫顯著偏高，比較有利於春季蔬菜生產。隨著氣溫回升，北方設施蔬菜上市量將進一步增大，南方大棚喜溫蔬菜進入生長旺季，全國蔬菜整體供應量將繼續增加。預計4月份以後，大部分品種價格將進入季節性回落區間。</p> <p>　　蔬菜供應充足，水果供給同樣有保障。“我國水果種植面積大，市場供應較為充足。”中國農業科學院農業資訊研究所研究員趙俊曄說。</p> <p>　　當前，水果價格處於季節性上漲通道。主要原因是初春時節青黃不接，冷庫蘋果、冷庫梨和香蕉是水果市場供給主力軍。分品種看，蘋果和梨庫存量偏低。據調研統計，截至2月底，冷庫蘋果存量664萬噸，較前3年同期平均值下降9.4%，處於歷史偏低庫存值；冷庫梨存量270萬噸，較去年同期下降12.9%。季節性供給偏緊是支撐蘋果和梨價格上漲的主要原因。香蕉產區受寒潮天氣影響，供應減少，價格走高。</p> <p>　　“後期，隨著春夏季時令水果陸續上市，水果市場供給量加大，價格將穩中有降。”趙俊曄說。（經濟日報記者黃俊毅）</p></div> <div class="editor f14">[責任編輯：李丹]</div> </div>  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