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//]]></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/afpmm.alicdn.com/g/mm/afp-cdn/JS/k.js@OldUrl;@JS;http://econ.taiwan.cn/sy/201702/t20170210_11696059.htm_.js"></script>  </div>  <div id="tw_artmain"> <div class="tw_place"><a href="http://103.249.53.35/" target="_self">台灣網</a> > <a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/econ.taiwan.cn/" target="_self" title="經貿" class="CurrChnlCls">經貿</a> > <a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/econ.taiwan.cn/sy/" target="_self" title="商業" class="CurrChnlCls">商業</a></div> <h1 class="art_tit">今年煤價會否再演“過山車”</h1> <div class="art_time">2017年02月10日 10:54:14 來源：中國經濟網—《經濟日報》 <div class="art_font"><div style="float:left;margin-top:-6px;">  <div class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空間"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分享到騰訊微博"></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" title="分享到人人網"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a></div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </div><div style="float:left;"><a href="javascript:window.print();"><img src="http://ats.taiwan.cn/images/jingmao_34.gif" align="top" /></a>字號：<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="smallFont">小</a> <a href="javascript:void(0);" class="medFont">中</a> <a href="javascript:void(0);" class="largeFont">大</a></div></div> </div> <div class="art_con left"> <div class="art_txt fontsizebox"> <div class=TRS_Editor><div class="Custom_UnionStyle"> <p>　　剛剛過去的2016年，是煤炭市場出現“過山車”行情的戲劇性一年。2016年年初，環渤海5500大卡動力煤價格指數只有371元/噸左右，坑口煤價格在經歷“腰斬之腰斬”後，賣出了白菜價。　</p> <div id="text" sizset="57" sizcache08208242680670477="4"> <p align="justify">　　進入下半年以後,煤炭價格急劇上漲。11月初，環渤海5500大卡動力煤價格指數飆升至2016年年內最高的607元/噸，比年初上漲了63.6%，企業效益也有了好轉。</p> <p align="justify">　　進入2017年，煤炭價格有所回落。2月7日，環渤海5500大卡動力煤價格指數報收于588元/噸，比年初回落5元/噸。</p> <p align="justify">　　新的一年裏，煤價走勢如何，關鍵要弄清今年的煤炭供需形勢。</p> <p align="justify">　　總的來看，經過10多年來不斷深化煤炭市場化改革，供求關係已經成為決定煤炭價格走勢的關鍵性因素。2016年煤炭市場行情的回升，在很大程度上也是受供需形勢影響。特別是隨著年初煤炭去產能和煤礦減量化生產政策措施的實施，4月份起產量明顯下降。在需求方面，儘管全年全國煤炭消費在連續兩年下降的基礎上同比繼續下降1.3%。但進入9月份以後，由於水電產量減少，火電增速加快，日均耗煤大幅增加。一減一增，影響了全國煤炭供需形勢由嚴重供大於求逐漸轉為供需基本平衡，也給價格走勢帶來了較為深刻的影響。</p> <p align="justify">　　從2017年年初的情況看，當前煤炭供需關係的基本面並未發生明顯改變。從供給側看，根據國家統計年鑒資料分析，2006年至2015年，全國煤炭採選業固定資產投資總額3.67萬億元，新增煤炭產能31.67億噸/年，在建煤礦產能13.6億噸/年。如果加上原有的煤炭產能，全國煤炭產能規模預計逼近60億噸。從需求端看，隨著宏觀經濟增速換擋，加之資源、環境約束不斷強化，新能源和可再生能源替代步伐加快，煤炭需求增速將繼續放緩。因此，全國煤炭供給總體上仍將大於需求，煤炭經濟平穩運作仍然缺乏堅實基礎，煤炭價格很難出現持續上漲的局面。</p> <p align="justify">　　從另一個角度看，自2012年以來“跌跌不休”甚至價格腰斬的局面也很難再現。這是因為，國家正在加大力度推進去產能，同時加大治理違法違規建設生產和超能力生產力度，提高商品煤品質標準，推行減量化生產措施。這些舉措將使煤炭市場供給儘快告別無序狀態，供給嚴重大於需求的失衡局面同樣很難再上演。</p> <p align="justify">　　總的來看，2017年我國煤炭市場總體上仍將以維持平穩運作為主，不會出現大起大落的波動行情。煤炭行業仍應堅定信心，繼續把化解煤炭產能過剩、促進市場供需平衡作為今後幾年的重點任務，不斷完善促進煤炭行業健康可持續發展的體制機制，努力推動全行業健康平穩運作。（原文來源：經濟日報作者：林火燦）</p> </div> </div></div> <p class="editor">[責任編輯：李帥]</p> </div> <div class="page"> <script type="text/javascript"> createPageHTML(1, 0, "t20170210_11696059", "htm"); 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