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target="_blank" title="台灣網" class="CurrChnlCls">台灣網</a> > <a href="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/econ.taiwan.cn/" target="_blank" title="經貿" class="CurrChnlCls">經貿</a> </div> </div>   <div class="content wrap"> <h1 class="title">一季度社融數據超預期，實體經濟的“至暗時刻”已過？</h1> <div class="funcs clearfix single-line"> <div class="info"> <div class="date format single-line">2019-04-16 11:07:00</div> <div class="source format single-line">來源：經濟日報</div> <div class="resizer format single-line">字號</div> </div>  <div class="share"> <div id="bdShare"> <div>  <div class="bdsharebuttonbox bdshare-button-style0-32" data-tag="share_1" data-bd-bind="1482825957937"> <a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分享到微信"></a> <a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分享到新浪微博"></a> <a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="sqq" title="分享到QQ好友"></a> <a href="#" class="bds_qzone" data-cmd="qzone" title="分享到QQ空間"></a> </div> <script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{"tag":"share_1","bdSize":32,"bdCustomStyle":"http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/css/bgBdShare2021.css"}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </div> </div> <div id="bdShareBtn"></div> </div>  </div> <div class="contentArea"> <div class=TRS_Editor><p>　　盼星星，盼月亮，終於盼來了一季度金融數據。</p> <p>　　第一印象，一季度金融數據有“三多”：<span style="color: rgb(171,25,66)"><strong>幹貨多，資訊多，值得說道的也多。</strong></span></p> <p>　　話不多說，先上數據——</p> <p>　　</p> <section class="xmt-style-block"></section><section></section><section></section><section></section><section></section><section></section> <p> </p> <blockquote style="max-width: 100%; white-space: normal; color: rgb(102,102,102); padding-bottom: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-left: 10px; margin: 5px 0px 0px; border-left: rgb(241,185,185) 5px solid; line-height: 25px; padding-right: 10px"> <p style="white-space: normal">　　<span style="font-size: 17px">一季度，社會融資規模增量累計為8.18萬億元，比上年同期多2.34萬億元；</span></p> <p style="white-space: normal">　　<span style="font-size: 17px">3月末，廣義貨幣(M2)餘額188.94萬億元，同比增長8.6%。</span></p> <p style="white-space: normal">　　<span style="font-size: 17px">……</span></p> </blockquote> <p>　　看完這些數據，比較敏感的人士又從社融規模大增、M2增速創新高中推測央行正在放水。</p> <p>　　真的是這樣嗎？</p> <p>　　看完這四個問題，心中就有譜了。</p> <p>　　</p> <section data-style-type="5"></section><section></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us"></section><section></section><section></section><section data-style-type="5"></section><section data-style-type="5"></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us"></section><section></section><section></section><section data-css="background-color: rgb(42, 72, 72);box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 19px;margin-bottom: 4px;padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;text-align: left"></section><section class="xmt-style-block"></section><section></section><section></section><section></section><section></section><section></section> <p> </p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box">　　<strong><span style="font-size: 18px">問題一一季度社融為什麼規模這麼大？</span></strong></p> <p>　　</p> <section style="box-sizing: border-box; height: 2px; width: 100%; background-color: rgb(0,0,0)"></section> <p> </p> <p>　　</p> <p style="text-align: left">　　<strong><span style="color: rgb(0,0,0)">前期逆週期調節政策逐漸落地</span></strong> </p> <p>　　<strong>交通銀行首席經濟學家連平</strong>表示，3月份信貸在沒有了2月份春節季節性因素影響之後，加之在多次定向降準後銀行體系流動性相對充裕，為3月份信貸超預期反彈創造了良好的流動性環境。</p> <p>　　<strong>聯訊證券首席經濟學家李奇霖</strong>則表示，一季度金融數據大超預期，主要是與前期逆週期調節政策逐漸落地、地產投資具備韌性以及財政支出提前等因素有關。</p> <p>　　</p> <section class="xmt-style-block"></section><section></section><section></section><section></section><section></section><section></section> <p> </p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box">　　<strong><span style="font-size: 18px">問題二M1、M2大幅反彈，央行“放水”了嗎？</span></strong></p> <p>　　</p> <section style="box-sizing: border-box; height: 2px; width: 100%; background-color: rgb(0,0,0)"></section> <p> </p> <p>　　</p> <p style="text-align: left">　　<strong><span style="color: rgb(0,0,0)">M2增速與名義GDP基本匹配，離放水還遠著呢</span></strong></p> <p>　　</p> <section class="xmt-style-block"></section><section></section><section></section><section></section><section></section><section></section> <p> </p> <blockquote style="max-width: 100%; white-space: normal; color: rgb(102,102,102); padding-bottom: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-left: 10px; margin: 5px 0px 0px; border-left: rgb(241,185,185) 5px solid; line-height: 25px; padding-right: 10px"> <p style="color: rgb(0,0,0)">　　<strong><span style="font-size: 17px">中國民生銀行首席研究員溫彬</span></strong><span style="font-size: 17px">表示，3月份M2創下2018年3月以來最高增速，主要原因有：</span><span style="font-size: 17px">3月份外匯儲備規模繼2018年11月以來取得“五連升”，有利於流動性投放；</span><span style="font-size: 17px">財政支出加快，貨幣投放提速；</span><span style="font-size: 17px">信貸增長較去年同期加快，派生能力增強。</span></p> </blockquote> <p>　　</p> <section class="xmt-style-block"></section><section></section><section></section><section></section><section></section><section></section> <p> </p> <blockquote style="max-width: 100%; white-space: normal; color: rgb(102,102,102); padding-bottom: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-left: 10px; margin: 5px 0px 0px; border-left: rgb(241,185,185) 5px solid; line-height: 25px; padding-right: 10px"> <p style="color: rgb(0,0,0)">　　<strong><span style="font-size: 17px">聯訊證券高級宏觀研究員張德禮</span></strong><span style="font-size: 17px">表示，去年以來，央行連續降準，向市場釋放了流動性，這是社會融資改善的重要條件，但更為重要是去年下半年以來，各類寬信用政策配合讓錢從金融體系流向了實體經濟。</span><span style="font-size: 17px">但不能據此認為央行“放水”。</span></p> </blockquote> <p>　　</p> <section class="xmt-style-block"></section><section></section><section></section><section></section><section></section><section></section> <p> </p> <blockquote style="max-width: 100%; white-space: normal; color: rgb(102,102,102); padding-bottom: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-left: 10px; margin: 5px 0px 0px; border-left: rgb(241,185,185) 5px solid; line-height: 25px; padding-right: 10px"> <p style="color: rgb(0,0,0)">　　<strong><span style="font-size: 17px">光大銀行金融市場部宏觀分析師周茂華</span></strong><span style="font-size: 17px">則認為M2與社融強勁反彈超預期，意味著國內貨幣金融環境明顯改善。</span><span style="font-size: 17px">截至目前，M2增速與名義GDP基本匹配，顯示國內的貨幣環境仍是適度的。</span></p> </blockquote> <p>　　</p> <section class="xmt-style-block"></section><section></section><section></section><section></section><section></section><section></section> <p> </p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box">　　<strong><span style="font-size: 18px">問題三這麼多錢都去哪了？</span></strong></p> <p>　　</p> <section style="box-sizing: border-box; height: 2px; width: 100%; background-color: rgb(0,0,0)"></section> <p> </p> <p>　　</p> <p style="text-align: left">　　<strong><span style="color: rgb(0,0,0)">流向企業信貸融資佔比達到77.1%</span></strong></p> <p>　　連平表示，一季度，流向企業部門的信貸融資佔比達到77.1%，較去年同期的61.6%大幅提升，顯示出2019年信貸支援實體經濟的力度明顯增強。</p> <p>　　溫彬表示，3月社融增速逐漸企穩回升，居民部門和企業部門信貸都有改善，金融支援實體經濟力度增強。</p> <p>　　未來，預計貨幣政策仍將保持鬆緊適度的穩健基調，近期降準概率下降，但<span style="color: rgb(171,25,66)"><strong>在融資規模“量”改善的情況下，宜更加關注政策傳導的通暢性和“價”的合理，不斷推進實體經濟融資成本降低。</strong></span></p> <p>　　</p> <section class="xmt-style-block"></section><section></section><section></section><section></section><section></section><section></section> <p> </p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box">　　<strong><span style="font-size: 18px">問題四買哪些資產能掙錢？</span></strong></p> <p>　　</p> <section style="box-sizing: border-box; height: 2px; width: 100%; background-color: rgb(0,0,0)"></section> <p> </p> <p>　　</p> <p style="text-align: left">　　<strong>風險資產機會多</strong></p> <p>　　國泰君安分析認為：社融大增後，全面看好風險資產，實體經濟最糟糕時刻已過。</p> <p>　　周茂華表示，經濟呈現企穩回暖態勢，利好權益資產。同時，國內宏觀政策穩健，寬信用效果顯現，這對國內利率（債券）造成一定利空。</p></div> <div class="editor f14">[責任編輯：王怡然]</div> </div>  <div class="page-number"> <script type="text/javascript"> createPageHTML(1, 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