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<script>window._bd_share_config={"common":{"bdSnsKey":{},"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":"0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{"tag":"share_1","bdSize":32,"bdCustomStyle":"http://ats.taiwan.cn/homepage2021/css/bgBdShare2021.css"}};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')).src='http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];</script>  </div> </div> <div id="bdShareBtn"></div> </div>  </div> <div class="contentArea"> <div class=TRS_Editor><p align="justify">　　根據日程安排，國家統計局10日將公佈2018年12月份居民消費價格指數(CPI)。受多重因素影響，市場普遍預計，12月份CPI同比漲幅或繼續回落，但仍將處於“2時代”。</p> <p align="center"><img alt="" src="http://103.249.53.35/gate/big5/www.people.com.cn/mediafile/pic/20190110/90/9069741566898381326.jpg" /></p> <p align="center">CPI同比、環比漲幅走勢圖。來自國家統計局</p> <p align="justify">　　<strong>CPI漲幅或小幅回落</strong> </p> <p align="justify">　　國家統計局此前公佈的數據顯示，2018年11月份CPI同比上漲2.2%，漲幅相比10月有所回落。</p> <p align="justify">　　華創證券分析師張瑜認為，食品項季節性平穩回升，但成品油大幅下調將顯著拖累非食品項，預計2018年12月份CPI同比漲幅將回落至1.9%附近。</p> <p align="justify">　　據農業農村部“全國農產品批發市場價格資訊系統”監測，進入12月中旬後，蔬菜價格持續走高，牛肉等肉類價格有所上漲。</p> <p align="justify">　　國內成品油價格12月則迎三次下調，月初汽油下調540元/噸、柴油下調520元/噸，更是創下近年來最大單次下調幅度。</p> <p align="justify">　　Wind資訊的數據顯示，19家機構對去年12月份CPI同比漲幅的平均預測值為2.0%。其中，預測的最大值為2.2%，最小值為1.9%，若上述平均預測兌現，CPI將繼續小幅回落，同時意味著去年全年CPI同比漲幅處於年初制定的3%左右的調控目標之內。</p> <p align="justify">　　<strong>今年物價走勢如何？</strong> </p> <p align="justify">　　2019年物價走勢如何，漲幅是否繼續回落？</p> <p align="justify">　　據商務部監測，2018年12月31日至2019年1月6日，30種蔬菜平均批發價格比前一週上漲1.7%，水產品批發價格小幅上漲，糧食批發價格略有上漲，食用油批發價格略有波動，肉類批發價格小幅波動，禽產品批發價格略有回落。</p> <p align="justify">　　北京大學經濟學院教授曹和平告訴記者，預計接下來物價不會出現大幅度的下降趨勢。今年1-2月份物價漲幅會維持在2.0%左右，3月份受基礎建設等因素影響，物價漲幅或有上揚趨勢。</p> <p align="justify">　　交通銀行首席經濟學家連平表示，國際原油和大宗商品價格已經下行，輸入性通脹壓力較小；投資需求和消費需求較弱，對物價的拉動作用不強；貨幣政策將堅持不搞大水漫灌，不存在流動性氾濫進而抬升物價的可能性，2019年物價大幅上漲的可能性較小，全年CPI平均漲幅可能在1.8%左右。(謝藝觀)</p></div> 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